Dear Friends,
You gotta feel for President Obama. He finally gets to go off on vacation to Martha’s Vineyard. The weather is gorgeous. All he wants to do is play a few rounds of golf. And bam! For the second time in 3 years his summer vacation is disrupted by a crisis in the Middle East courtesy of the Arab Spring. Two years ago it was the overthrow of Muammar el-Qaddafi in Libya and the fall of Tripoli to rebels. This time, it is a brutal crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood demonstrators by the military government in Egypt. What’s a poor President to do?
The answer: Not much.
Apparently, the President has decided to demonstrate his unhappiness by having the U.S. military pull out of joint military exercises with Egypt in the Sinai Peninsula, scheduled for next month. There is certainly a message in that action, but not one that is likely to get General Sisi and his fellow generals to stop the crackdown that has already killed hundreds in Egypt. What else can he do? Well, if you ask the New York Times editorial board, the President should immediately cut off the $1.3 billion dollars of aid it gives the Egyptian military each year.
Here is why the President should NOT cut off the aid to the military government in Egypt:
1. There are no good guys in Egypt. It would seem consistent with American values to say that since the Brotherhood-led government of Mohamed Morsi was democratically elected and was overthrown by the Egyptian military that the U.S. should stand up for the Brotherhood and do whatever it can to return Egypt to democracy. But, this view is both simplistic and naïve. The Muslim Brotherhood may have been democratically elected but they were not governing in a way that most of us would recognize as democratic. The repression of women, the attacks on the Coptic Christian Church and the Brotherhood’s attempts to use the levers of government to impose their version of Muslim Sharia law on the country were clear indications that their goal is an Islamic theocracy. Moreover, while the Brotherhood demonstrators are surely victims of government violence, they have also been perpetrators of violence, attacking not only numerous police stations, but rioting against Coptic Christians and destroying their churches – as many as 20 reported destroyed in the last two days. In theory, we might like to see America support liberal democratic activists in Egypt. In fact, most of those alleged liberal activists – with a few exceptions - have thrown their support behind General Sisi and his military government. Many in Egypt profess to fight for democracy - as long as democracy means that those who agree with them are in power. To understand why so many who participated in demonstrations to overthrow Mubarak are now supporting the military in their crackdown, see the following insightful piece in Tablet, the online Jewish magazine.
2. Cutting off aid is not likely to stop the crackdown. The Egyptian military and its anti-Muslim Brotherhood allies are fighting for their lives. If the Muslim Brotherhood is successful at rallying the country against them and reasserting their control there is a good chance much of the current leadership would be jailed or killed. Facing a cut off of aid from the U.S. the Egyptian military would likely turn to the Arab oil monarchies, especially Saudi Arabia, to replace that money. These Persian Gulf states have a very strong interest in repressing the Brotherhood and no interest at all in seeing democracy in Egypt. Regardless, General Sisi and co. are likely to take care of the Brotherhood first and deal with the aid later.
3. Cutting off aid to the Egyptian military would be “bad for the Jews”. As a Jewish community we should always ask, “What’s good for the Jews?” This should not be our entire moral compass. But, it should be an important factor. Specifically, the Muslim Brotherhood is a strong ally of the Hamas government in Gaza. An Egyptian military government is much more likely to work with the U.S. and Israel to contain Hamas, limit their ability to conduct terror activities and allow a peace process with the Palestinians to move forward (halevai – it should only happen!). Moreover, the situation in the Sinai Peninsula has devolved to the point where it is now an ungoverned haven for numerous bad actors, including smugglers, terrorists and thugs – all of whom are threats to Israel. While it will take some time there is at least some chance that an Egyptian military government would reassert the rule of law in the Sinai.
It runs counter to many of our instincts as liberal American Jews to urge our government NOT to stand up against violence perpetrated by a military junta against its opponents, NOT to stand up for the restoration of democracy in another country. But, if a country does not have the wherewithal to establish a democracy that protects the rights of all its citizens; if majority rule leads to the rule of those hostile to us and our values then our best move may be to make no move at all.
Shabbat Shalom,
Jordan
Jordan
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